Friday, June 25, 2010

Be fair, many things are anthropogenic, but many things are NOT.

Recently, many low lying places in Singapore have been flooded when 120% of an entire month’s rainfall fell in approximately three hours. After the first flooding, PUB did a check on their pipes and decided that some choked culverts may have been the cause. So PUB held their hands up and said, “Ok maybe we didn’t do enough”. Kudos to them for that. Some people (including myself) have wondered if the Marina Barrage has anything to do with it. Personally, I have a little suspicion, but hey, I’m not an engineer, and someone should explain that.

Many people have then jumped on to the back of the government, with comments like “Let’s see Dr. Yaacob Ibrahim take responsibility.” He did, through PUB. What more could he have done? Resign? Over two days of freakish rainstorms? Let’s not forget Dr. Ibrahim’s background. He’s Associate Professor of Civil Engineering at NUS, got his PhD in Cornell and did his post-doc at Stanford. Look in the Cabinet - is there a better to do that job? No. So give the man a break and let him do his job. Demanding this and that at this point in time does not help. We are all victims of freakish weather.

Then there are others that go, “Look, earthquakes, flood, drought. It’s Man’s fault. Mother Nature is paying back”. Firstly, earthquakes are the result of tectonic plate movement. NOTHING to do with anthropogenic action. Secondly, what’s the point with gloating? Happy that you might be right? Well then do something! And I mean do something more constructive than point your finger at the Minister, who quite rightly made most of our drainages culverts so they are not above ground and smelling to the high heavens. Besides, the drainages are choked partly because people are LITTERING. Is that Dr. Ibrahim’s fault too? How many people actually tell off people who litter or pick up and dispose of litter that “missed” bin?

At the end of the day, this period of flooding is the result of two freakish rainstorms. No amount of planning short of turning Singapore in Venice could have prevented the floodings, choked culverts or not. Is it the result of anthropogenic climate change? Maybe. But let’s all not forget that in Nature, unpredictable things happen. In 1703, hurricane strength winds for two weeks killed nearly 30,000 people in Britain and destroyed much of the Royal Navy. Even with modern technology and meticulous planning, could this have been prevented? Of course not. So let’s take things in perspective. Do what we can in reducing anthropogenic impacts on the environment, but when freak storms occur, we should also keep in mind that we may not have been the cause of the weather, but we still have caused the flooding by selfish daily behavior.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Standard practice is to statistically work out the maximum size of the 1 in 100 years storm and prepare for it, not the 1 in 50 years. It's called the 100 year ARI event, ARI standing for 'Average Recurrence Interval'.

Sometimes I wish that the government and the media would bother to explain these things and stop assuming that Singaporeans are not interested in details.

SD said...

you do realise that 1 in 100 years storms don't appear every 100 years like clockwork. A 1 in 100 years storm could appear consecutively for three years. Unlikely, but the probability exists.

Anonymous said...

It was my error.

Anonymous said...

The author is really cool. But some of the commentators are just posting stupid words.